Rising US interest rates. Learnings from 2019.


●US stock market is shaken by rising interest rates
●How the market sees the direction of the policy interest rate
● Looking back at the last interest rate cycle and stock performance

Is global market risk-off going to end? Will there be a year-end high in US stocks?


●The pain of rising interest rates spreading the world until the 3rd quarter
●Global stocks are undervalued in terms of valuation
●Can we anticipate a year-end high in US stocks ?

Can U.S. stocks endure the “pains” and “side effects”?


● Rising long-term interest rates push US stocks to new year-to-date lows
● FOMC outlook suggested weakening fundamentals
●US stock valuations confirmed by earnings yield spreads

Will markets survive the FOMC? US stock investment strategy for next year


● FRB decided to raise interest rates by 0.75% at FOMC
● US recession probability increased after consecutive rate hikes
● US stocks tend to rise “the year before the presidential election”

Will the aftershocks of the “repeated CPI shock” continue? Policy interest rate outlook is the key


● US stocks plunge as interest rates rise along with repeated CPI shocks
● What are the results of the August inflation indicators?
● Market is shaken by changes in policy rate outlook